This game · 130 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Indiana Fever won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 27 points on 9-for-18 (50%), headlined by 5-for-10 from above the break — 6.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Indiana Fever created 13.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 10.5 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +8.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 24% for Las Vegas Aces.
carried the offense at the rim — 8/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 12% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 12%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 12% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 12%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 19.2 pts
Indiana Fever got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces carried the process scorecard.
Las Vegas Aces won the free-throw line by 13 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightClark's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (5/10) vs. a 30% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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