TSRBeta
Friday, June 19, 2026 · Final

This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

81—75
Minnesota Lynx
MIN
Lynx
GSV
Valkyries
Golden State Valkyries

Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.

Nia Coffey

led the way with 22 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 5.7 more than expected overall.

  1. Golden State Valkyries created 12.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Minnesota Lynx held up better (1.6 pts below expected).
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Golden State Valkyries created a +12.5 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-12.3↑ Above avg
+12.3↑ Above avg
Shot making
-1.6↓ Below avg
-9.9↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.91↓ Below avg
1.00

Shot diet

Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (27%) while Golden State Valkyries was at 11% — a cleaner profile for Golden State Valkyries.

Cecilia Zandalasini

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
MIN
9%4/6 · 67% FG
GSV
5%4/4 · 100% FG
2/2 2/2
Paint
MIN
46%13/31 · 42% FG
GSV
30%7/22 · 32% FG
4/5 4/8
Corner 3
MIN
6%2/4 · 50% FG
GSV
14%3/10 · 30% FG
1/2 1/2
Short mid
MIN
12%1/8 · 13% FG
GSV
8%2/6 · 33% FG
1/2 2/3
Long mid
MIN
15%3/10 · 30% FG
GSV
3%1/2 · 50% FG
1/8 1/1
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 13% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 41% of Golden State's; Golden State tilted here more (41% vs 13%).

MIN
13%4/9 · 44% FG
GSV
41%9/30 · 30% FG
2/2 4/9

Possession context

MIN ran more early offense in this game.

Minnesota Lynx got 28% of FGA in transition (0.86 expected pts/att) vs 12% for Golden State Valkyries (0.92 expected pts/att).

MINGSV
Transition share28%12%
Second-chance share18%20%
After-steal share7%8%
Half-court expected pts/att0.891.02
Transition expected pts/att0.860.92

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Minnesota Lynx won by 3.0 pts — SQ edge said GSV.

Golden State Valkyries got the better looks, but Minnesota Lynx carried the process scorecard.

Minnesota Lynx won the free-throw line by 10 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.

MINGSVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots61.673.9GSV
Finishing vs expected-1.6-9.9MIN

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2111MIN
Turnovers1414Even
Offensive rebounds1213GSV

Process value (pts)

Process total79.676.6MIN
↳ Looks + finishing60.064.0-4.0
↳ Free throws21.011.0+10.0
↳ Turnover cost-14.0-12.0-2.0
↳ Second chance12.613.6-1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
6/16
FG%
38%
Pts
15
Vs expected
-0.6
C&S
2/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightWilliams's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (1/1) vs. a 44% expectation.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 10ATL82–75CHI· Jun 9DAL76–100MIN· Jun 9PHX81–87GSV· Jun 9NY89–80CONN· Jun 8IND78–76WAS· Jun 8SEA91–101LV· Jun 8CHI68–85TOR· Jun 7POR72–89LA· Jun 7SEA68–88MIN· Jun 6GSV79–84LV· Jun 6WAS77–109ATL· Jun 6IND75–83NY· Jun 6CONN80–85CHI· Jun 5DAL104–96LA· Jun 5PHX78–72POR· Jun 5ATL71–83IND· Jun 4GSV84–87MIN· Jun 4TOR82–97NY· Jun 3PHX72–68SEA· Jun 3CONN75–91ATL· Jun 2CHI72–90WAS· Jun 2POR77–95GSV· Jun 2LV79–69LA· Jun 2SEA56–79DAL· Jun 1MIN111–77PHX· Jun 1LV91–81GSV· May 31SEA72–93TOR· May 30LA81–84CONN· May 30IND84–100POR· May 30PHX68–75NY· May 29LA92–87WAS· May 29MIN79–58CHI· May 29ATL86–66POR· May 29LV87–95DAL· May 28IND88–90GSV· May 28PHX74–84NY· May 27TOR111–104CHI· May 27ATL81–96MIN· May 27CONN61–71POR· May 27WAS78–64SEA· May 27POR81–74NY· May 25CONN70–97GSV· May 25PHX80–82ATL· May 24DAL91–76NY· May 24WAS85–97SEA· May 24MIN85–75CHI· May 23POR99–80TOR· May 23LA101–95LV· May 23DAL69–86ATL· May 22GSV82–90IND· May 22CONN59–77SEA· May 22GSV87–70NY· May 21TOR72–100MIN· May 21LA97–88PHX· May 21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 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