This game · 147 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Los Angeles Sparks won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 20 points on 8-for-14 (57%), headlined by 5-for-6 at the rim — 2.5 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Los Angeles Sparks created 2.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Los Angeles Sparks held up better (6.8 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Los Angeles Sparks created a +9.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks (45% good looks) and Portland Fire (43% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 31% of Los Angeles's; Portland tilted here more (32% vs 31%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 31% of Los Angeles's; Portland tilted here more (32% vs 31%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Los Angeles Sparks won by 32.0 pts
Los Angeles Sparks won the turnover battle by 5 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightOgwumike was sharp — 50% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 83% from Rim (5/6) against a 60% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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