This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.
scored with 9 points on 4-for-7 (57%) — 0.6 more than expected (57% from the rim or corner).
- Golden State Valkyries created 15.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Atlanta Dream held up better (16.5 pts below expected).
- Q3 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +11.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries (30% good looks) and Atlanta Dream (23% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
found the right spots — 3 attempts at the rim — but couldn't convert, going 0/3.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 16% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 23% of Golden State's, with Golden State leaning on the higher-value zone (23% vs 16%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 16% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 23% of Golden State's, with Golden State leaning on the higher-value zone (23% vs 16%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 18.2 pts
Golden State Valkyries won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams's strongest zone was Rim — 67% from Rim (2/3) vs. a 57% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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