This game · 139 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 45 points on 15-for-18 (83%), headlined by 8-for-9 at the rim — 13.1 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Connecticut Sun created 19.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 14.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +7.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces got the cleaner diet — 53% rim or corner looks vs 43% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 8/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 50% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Connecticut's, with Las Vegas leaning on the higher-value zone (50% vs 37%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 50% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Connecticut's, with Las Vegas leaning on the higher-value zone (50% vs 37%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Connecticut Sun won by 4.4 pts
Connecticut Sun won the turnover battle by 5 (18 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBurke struggled most from Above — 1/5 against a 37% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →