This game · 126 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 21 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 5-for-6 from above the break — 8.5 more than expected overall.
- New York Liberty created 9.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +5.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty (36% good looks) and Phoenix Mercury (37% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Phoenix's attempts came from corner threes vs 13% of New York's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (19% vs 13%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Phoenix's attempts came from corner threes vs 13% of New York's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (19% vs 13%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 26.0 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJones struggled most from Paint — 0/2 against a 38% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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