This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 21 points on 8-for-12 (67%), headlined by 7-for-8 at the rim — 3.3 more than expected overall with 67% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Michaela Onyenwere close behind (+2.4 on 14 points).
- Washington Mystics created 6.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 0.4 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Washington Mystics created a +7.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 39% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 31%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 31%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 2.3 pts
Toronto Tempo won the turnover battle by 8 (16 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightIriafen was sharp — 67% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 88% from Rim (7/8) against a 59% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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