This game · 153 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 14 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 3-for-4 from short midrange — 3.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Las Vegas Aces created 14.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 2.3 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +11.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever got the cleaner diet — 37% rim or corner looks vs 23% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/4 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 36% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (36% vs 22%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 36% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (36% vs 22%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 4.3 pts
Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 6 (22 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightClark's strongest zone was Rim — 75% from Rim (3/4) vs. a 58% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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