This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 17 points on 6-for-9 (67%), headlined by 2-for-2 from the corner — 4.7 more than expected overall (44% from the rim or corner).
- New York Liberty created 9.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 9.3 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +4.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury lived in the midrange (29%) while New York Liberty was at 15% — a cleaner profile for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 24% of Phoenix's; New York tilted here more (35% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 24% of Phoenix's; New York tilted here more (35% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 1.7 pts — SQ edge said NY.
Phoenix Mercury won the turnover battle by 7 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBonner's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (7/7) vs. a 59% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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