This game · 144 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Chicago Sky won on finishing, not shot quality.

scored with 12 points on 4-for-8 (50%), including 2-for-5 from three — 1.0 more than expected.
- Golden State Valkyries created 6.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Chicago Sky held up better (10.0 pts below expected).
- Q1 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +6.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries (27% good looks) and Chicago Sky (26% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

found the right spots — 3 attempts at the rim — but couldn't convert, going 0/3.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 19% of Golden State's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (22% vs 19%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 19% of Golden State's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (22% vs 19%).
Possession context
CHI ran more early offense in this game.
Chicago Sky got 32% of FGA in transition (0.92 expected pts/att) vs 13% for Golden State Valkyries (0.93 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Chicago Sky won by 1.7 pts — SQ edge said GSV.
Chicago Sky won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams's strongest zone was Above — 60% from Above (3/5) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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