This game · 199 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 30 points on 9-for-16 (56%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 7.0 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Washington Mystics created 1.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 8.7 points on makes and misses.
- Michaela Onyenwere carried the finishing gap — +7.0 vs expected on 30 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 33% rim or corner looks vs 14% for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 20% of Washington's; Portland tilted here more (35% vs 20%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 20% of Washington's; Portland tilted here more (35% vs 20%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 8.0 pts
Washington Mystics won the turnover battle by 5 (24 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightIriafen's strongest zone was Above — 100% from Above (1/1) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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