This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 20 points on 8-for-13 (62%), headlined by 5-for-7 in the paint — 5.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Connecticut Sun created 21.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 13.2 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Connecticut Sun created a +11.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks (13% good looks) and Connecticut Sun (22% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Connecticut's attempts came from the paint vs 42% of Los Angeles's; Los Angeles tilted here more (42% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Connecticut's attempts came from the paint vs 42% of Los Angeles's; Los Angeles tilted here more (42% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Connecticut Sun won by 10.2 pts
Connecticut Sun won the turnover battle by 12 (25 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBurrell's strongest zone was Paint — 71% from Paint (5/7) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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