This game · 123 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
scored with 16 points on 6-for-12 (50%), including 3-for-8 from three — 0.9 more than expected (67% from the rim or corner).
- Atlanta Dream created 24.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Chicago Sky outperformed expected value by 5.6 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +11.6 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 52% rim or corner looks vs 38% for Chicago Sky.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 32% of Chicago's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 32%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 32% of Chicago's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 32%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 21.4 pts
Chicago Sky won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightDiggins's strongest zone was Above — 60% from Above (3/5) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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