This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 15 points on 4-for-7 (57%), headlined by 2-for-3 from above the break — 3.0 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Connecticut Sun created 0.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Connecticut Sun outperformed expected value by 7.5 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Connecticut Sun created a +3.2 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun lived in the midrange (21%) while Portland Fire was at 6% — a cleaner profile for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 14% of Connecticut's attempts came from the paint vs 31% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (31% vs 14%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 14% of Connecticut's attempts came from the paint vs 31% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (31% vs 14%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 2.9 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but Portland Fire carried the process scorecard.
Portland Fire won the free-throw line by 9 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightAshlee Barker found the right spots (62% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — +1.7 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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