This game · 133 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 19 points on 7-for-13 (54%), headlined by 2-for-2 from short midrange — 2.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Minnesota Lynx created 3.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 4.8 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +3.8 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx (40% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (37% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/6 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 35% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (35% vs 29%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 35% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (35% vs 29%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 27.1 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 8 (20 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMcBride's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (3/3) vs. a 57% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →