TSRBeta
Friday, July 10, 2026 · Final

This game · 147 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

87—102
Chicago Sky
CHI
Sky
LA
Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks

Los Angeles Sparks won by getting the better shots.

Erica Wheeler

led the way with 15 points on 6-for-10 (60%), headlined by 2-for-2 from long midrange — 5.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Los Angeles Sparks created 4.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 14.1 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Los Angeles Sparks built a +6.1 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-4.3↓ Below avg
+4.3↓ Below avg
Shot making
-5.7↓ Below avg
+14.1↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.04
1.03

Shot diet

Los Angeles Sparks (38% good looks) and Chicago Sky (41% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Kamilla Cardoso

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 29% of Los Angeles's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (35% vs 29%).

CHI
35%18/25 · 72% FG
LA
29%16/22 · 73% FG
2/2 3/3
Paint
CHI
15%6/11 · 55% FG
LA
12%2/9 · 22% FG
2/3 1/3
Corner 3
CHI
6%2/4 · 50% FG
LA
9%5/7 · 71% FG
1/1 2/2
Short mid
CHI
6%1/4 · 25% FG
LA
13%5/10 · 50% FG
1/1 3/3
Long mid
CHI
8%0/6 · 0% FG
LA
5%2/4 · 50% FG
0/1 2/2
Above break
CHI
30%4/21 · 19% FG
LA
32%9/24 · 38% FG
1/3 3/5

Possession context

CHILA
Transition share35%26%
Second-chance share13%5%
After-steal share4%11%
Half-court expected pts/att1.041.00
Transition expected pts/att1.031.03

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Los Angeles Sparks won by 20.9 pts

Los Angeles Sparks got the better looks, but Chicago Sky carried the process scorecard.

Chicago Sky won the free-throw line by 9 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.

CHILAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots73.777.9LA
Finishing vs expected-5.7+14.1LA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1910CHI
Turnovers1512LA
Offensive rebounds85CHI

Process value (pts)

Process total70.491.2LA
↳ Looks + finishing68.092.0-24.0
↳ Free throws19.010.0+9.0
↳ Turnover cost-25.0-16.0-9.0
↳ Second chance8.45.2+3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
9/16
FG%
56%
Pts
25
Vs expected
+4.3
C&S
3/7
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightOgwumike created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from Rim (3/3) well above the 60% baseline for that zone.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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