This game · 150 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 17 points on 6-for-13 (46%), headlined by 5-for-8 from above the break — 3.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Breanna Stewart close behind (+2.9 on 31 points).
- Connecticut Sun created 7.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 11.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +9.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 33% rim or corner looks vs 21% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Connecticut's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of New York's; New York tilted here more (36% vs 22%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Connecticut's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of New York's; New York tilted here more (36% vs 22%).
Possession context
NY ran more early offense in this game.
New York Liberty got 39% of FGA in transition (1.00 expected pts/att) vs 25% for Connecticut Sun (0.89 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 29.8 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but New York Liberty won the full process battle by 29.8 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightStewart's strongest zone was Rim — 83% from Rim (5/6) vs. a 57% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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