This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 21 points on 5-for-10 (50%), headlined by 2-for-4 from above the break — 3.0 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Myisha Hines-Allen close behind (+2.5 on 8 points, 3-for-3 on tough looks).
- Seattle Storm created 2.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Indiana Fever held up better (3.7 pts below expected).
- Q1 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +9.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever (52% good looks) and Seattle Storm (46% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 41% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 45% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 41%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 41% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 45% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 41%).
Possession context
IND ran more early offense in this game.
Indiana Fever got 37% of FGA in transition (1.06 expected pts/att) vs 18% for Seattle Storm (1.03 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 7.2 pts — SQ edge said SEA.
Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 7.2 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMitchell found the right spots (56% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -1.9 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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