This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 16 points on 7-for-9 (78%), headlined by 3-for-3 in the paint — 4.8 more than expected overall with 56% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Minnesota Lynx created 7.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 9.1 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +4.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (27%) while Los Angeles Sparks was at 15% — a cleaner profile for Los Angeles Sparks.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the paint vs 7% of Minnesota's; Los Angeles tilted here more (24% vs 7%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the paint vs 7% of Minnesota's; Los Angeles tilted here more (24% vs 7%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Los Angeles Sparks won by 3.8 pts — SQ edge said MIN.
Los Angeles Sparks won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCollier lived in the midrange — 40% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →