This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 17 points on 5-for-6 (83%), including 2-for-2 from three — 6.1 more than expected on a night most looks were tough (33% from the rim or corner).
- New York Liberty created 1.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 2.5 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +3.9 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 28% for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 21% of New York's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (33% vs 21%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 21% of New York's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (33% vs 21%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 19.9 pts — SQ edge said NY.
New York Liberty got the better looks, but Atlanta Dream won the full process battle by 19.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightStewart created in difficult areas and delivered — 67% from Paint (4/6) well above the 41% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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