This game · 139 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.
scored with 10 points on 4-for-7 (57%), including 1-for-4 from three — 1.0 more than expected.
- Seattle Storm created 1.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Seattle Storm created a +8.6 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm (28% good looks) and Portland Fire (35% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 38% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (38% vs 31%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 38% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (38% vs 31%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 7.2 pts — SQ edge said SEA.
Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Portland Fire won the full process battle by 7.2 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMalonga's strongest zone was Rim — 75% from Rim (3/4) vs. a 58% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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