This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 19 points on 7-for-8 (88%), headlined by 5-for-6 from above the break — 10.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Las Vegas Aces created 13.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 13.8 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +10.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces got the cleaner diet — 33% rim or corner looks vs 21% for Phoenix Mercury.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 32% of Las Vegas's; Phoenix tilted here more (39% vs 32%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 32% of Las Vegas's; Phoenix tilted here more (39% vs 32%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 68.4 pts
Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 9 (18 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (3/3) vs. a 60% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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