This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 19 points on 6-for-10 (60%), headlined by 3-for-5 from above the break — 4.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Napheesa Collier close behind (+4.2 on 20 points).
- Portland Fire created 5.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Portland Fire created a +8.5 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire (24% good looks) and Minnesota Lynx (25% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 34% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (34% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 34% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (34% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 4.2 pts
Portland Fire got the better looks, but Minnesota Lynx carried the process scorecard.
Minnesota Lynx won the free-throw line by 10 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (2/2) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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