TSRBeta
Friday, August 28, 2026 · Final

This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

101—83
Portland Fire
POR
Fire
ATL
Dream
Atlanta Dream

Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.

Emily Engstler

led the way with 25 points on 11-for-14 (79%), headlined by 8-for-8 in the interior — 9.8 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Carla Leite close behind (+8.9 on 26 points).

  1. Atlanta Dream created 8.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 18.4 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +3.6 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-8.0↑ Above avg
+8.0↓ Below avg
Shot making
+18.4↑ Above avg
-14.5↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.09
1.11

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 45% for Portland Fire.

Emily Engstler

carried the offense at the rim — 7/7 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 40%).

POR
40%20/26 · 77% FG
ATL
46%13/33 · 39% FG
7/7 2/3
Paint
POR
8%3/5 · 60% FG
ATL
3%1/2 · 50% FG
1/2 1/1
Corner 3
POR
5%1/3 · 33% FG
ATL
8%3/6 · 50% FG
0/1 2/3
Short mid
POR
6%2/4 · 50% FG
ATL
4%0/3 · 0% FG
1/2 0/2
Long mid
POR
0%—
ATL
0%—
Above break
POR
42%12/27 · 44% FG
ATL
38%9/27 · 33% FG
4/4 1/2

Possession context

PORATL
Transition share23%30%
Second-chance share8%24%
After-steal share8%1%
Half-court expected pts/att1.081.12
Transition expected pts/att1.081.05

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Portland Fire won by 14.5 pts — SQ edge said ATL.

Atlanta Dream got the better looks, but Portland Fire won the full process battle by 14.5 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

PORATLEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots70.678.5ATL
Finishing vs expected+18.4-14.5POR

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1219ATL
Turnovers1119POR
Offensive rebounds616ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total90.375.7POR
↳ Looks + finishing89.064.0+25.0
↳ Free throws12.019.0-7.0
↳ Turnover cost-17.0-24.0+7.0
↳ Second chance6.316.7-10.5

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/21
FG%
38%
Pts
26
Vs expected
-0.7
C&S
2/7
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightHoward's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 67% from Cor 3 (2/3) vs. a 41% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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