This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Connecticut Sun won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 21 points on 9-for-13 (69%), headlined by 4-for-4 from long midrange — 4.5 more than expected overall with 54% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Brittney Griner close behind (+3.6 on 20 points).
- Connecticut Sun created 6.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +7.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun got the cleaner diet — 51% rim or corner looks vs 38% for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 18% of Connecticut's; Portland tilted here more (43% vs 18%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 18% of Connecticut's; Portland tilted here more (43% vs 18%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 4.7 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightEdwards was sharp — 54% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 100% from L.Mid (4/4) against a 43% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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