TSRBeta
Saturday, July 11, 2026 · Final

This game · 135 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

102—92
Portland Fire
POR
Fire
ATL
Dream
Atlanta Dream

Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.

Serah Williams

led the way with 15 points on 6-for-6 (100%), headlined by 6-for-6 at the rim — 5.1 more than expected overall with 100% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Teja Oblak close behind (+5.3 on 10 points, 4-for-4 on tough looks).

  1. Atlanta Dream created 18.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 19.9 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +11.5 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-18.4↑ Above avg
+18.4↑ Above avg
Shot making
+19.9↑ Above avg
-12.5↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.10↑ Season best
1.13↑ Season best

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 59% rim or corner looks vs 48% for Portland Fire.

Serah Williams

carried the offense at the rim — 6/6 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 51% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (51% vs 40%).

POR
40%17/24 · 71% FG
ATL
51%21/38 · 55% FG
6/6 5/6
Paint
POR
3%1/2 · 50% FG
ATL
4%3/3 · 100% FG
1/1 1/1
Corner 3
POR
8%3/5 · 60% FG
ATL
8%3/6 · 50% FG
0/2 1/3
Short mid
POR
5%2/3 · 67% FG
ATL
4%2/3 · 67% FG
2/2 1/2
Long mid
POR
3%2/2 · 100% FG
ATL
1%1/1 · 100% FG
1/1 1/1
Above break
POR
40%11/24 · 46% FG
ATL
32%3/24 · 13% FG
3/4 2/7

Possession context

ATL ran more early offense in this game.

Atlanta Dream got 32% of FGA in transition (1.11 expected pts/att) vs 20% for Portland Fire (1.11 expected pts/att).

PORATL
Transition share20%32%
Second-chance share8%16%
After-steal share5%3%
Half-court expected pts/att1.091.14
Transition expected pts/att1.111.11

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Portland Fire won by 2.5 pts — SQ edge said ATL.

Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 5 (17 total TO).

Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.

PORATLEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots66.184.5ATL
Finishing vs expected+19.9-12.5POR

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1620ATL
Turnovers1712ATL
Offensive rebounds212ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total88.185.6POR
↳ Looks + finishing86.072.0+14.0
↳ Free throws16.020.0-4.0
↳ Turnover cost-16.0-19.0+3.0
↳ Second chance2.112.6-10.5

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/18
FG%
44%
Pts
20
Vs expected
-2.6
C&S
1/6
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightGray's strongest zone was S.Mid — 50% from S.Mid (1/2) vs. a 39% expectation.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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15POR87–90CONN· Jul 14WAS79–62TOR· Jul 14LA92–101ATL· Jul 13PHX100–104MIN· Jul 13NY91–93TOR· Jul 12SEA79–84WAS· Jul 12CHI91–96DAL· Jul 12IND109–75LV· Jul 12NY85–90MIN· Jul 11PHX58–106LV· Jul 11POR102–92ATL· Jul 11GSV79–64CONN· Jul 10DAL108–95TOR· Jul 10CHI87–102LA· Jul 10SEA78–89ATL· Jul 9IND92–89PHX· Jul 9LV88–80POR· Jul 9GSV83–75TOR· Jul 8MIN86–80CONN· Jul 8IND92–106LA· Jul 8DAL88–77NY· Jul 7CHI77–66PHX· Jul 7GSV62–49WAS· Jul 6CONN90–89MIN· Jul 6SEA82–64LA· Jul 6DAL89–76TOR· Jul 5IND84–68LV· Jul 5GSV88–83ATL· Jul 4POR77–72SEA· Jul 4MIN86–99NY· Jul 3CHI90–98LV· Jul 3ATL76–81WAS· Jul 2DAL86–83CONN· Jul 2SEA67–90PHX· Jul 2LV85–93NY· Jun 30MIN85–77DAL· Jun 28POR123–124WAS· Jun 28LV107–99CHI· Jun 28NY67–76GSV· Jun 28PHX89–80TOR· Jun 27LA87–111IND· Jun 27ATL90–105SEA· Jun 27WAS57–68CONN· Jun 26POR94–124CHI· Jun 26ATL75–78GSV· Jun 26LA97–125TOR· Jun 25DAL84–99LV· Jun 25NY88–99SEA· Jun 25PHX111–109IND· Jun 24MIN78–76WAS· Jun 24POR78–101CHI· Jun 24ATL66–77GSV· Jun 24NY87–76LV· Jun 23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 10ATL82–75CHI· Jun 9DAL76–100MIN· Jun 9PHX81–87GSV· Jun 9NY89–80CONN· Jun 8IND78–76WAS· Jun 8SEA91–101LV· Jun 8CHI68–85TOR· Jun 7POR72–89LA· Jun 7SEA68–88MIN· Jun 6GSV79–84LV· Jun 6WAS77–109ATL· Jun 6IND75–83NY· Jun 6CONN80–85CHI· Jun 5DAL104–96LA· Jun 5PHX78–72POR· Jun 5ATL71–83IND· Jun 4GSV84–87MIN· Jun 4TOR82–97NY· Jun 3PHX72–68SEA· Jun 3CONN75–91ATL· Jun 2CHI72–90WAS· Jun 2POR77–95GSV· Jun 2LV79–69LA· Jun 2SEA56–79DAL· Jun 1MIN111–77PHX· Jun 1LV91–81GSV· May 31SEA72–93TOR· May 30LA81–84CONN· May 30IND84–100POR· May 30PHX68–75NY· May 29LA92–87WAS· May 29MIN79–58CHI· May 29ATL86–66POR· May 29LV87–95DAL· May 28IND88–90GSV· May 28PHX74–84NY· May 27TOR111–104CHI· May 27ATL81–96MIN· May 27CONN61–71POR· May 27WAS78–64SEA· May 27POR81–74NY· May 25CONN70–97GSV· May 25PHX80–82ATL· May 24DAL91–76NY· May 24WAS85–97SEA· May 24MIN85–75CHI· May 23POR99–80TOR· May 23LA101–95LV· May 23DAL69–86ATL· May 22GSV82–90IND· May 22CONN59–77SEA· May 22GSV87–70NY· May 21TOR72–100MIN· May 21LA97–88PHX· May 21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1