This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 19 points on 6-for-9 (67%), headlined by 4-for-5 from the corner — 5.1 more than expected overall with 78% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Bridget Carleton close behind (+4.5 on 24 points).
- Portland Fire created 3.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 13.5 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Seattle Storm built a +5.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire got the cleaner diet — 36% rim or corner looks vs 19% for Seattle Storm.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 49% of Seattle's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Portland's; Seattle tilted here more (49% vs 36%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 49% of Seattle's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Portland's; Seattle tilted here more (49% vs 36%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 2.9 pts
Portland Fire won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton created in difficult areas and delivered — 44% from Above (4/9) well above the 35% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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