This game · 147 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 36 points on 14-for-19 (74%), headlined by 7-for-7 at the rim — 10.8 more than expected overall (47% from the rim or corner).
- Minnesota Lynx created 21.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 17.4 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Minnesota Lynx created a +8.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (17%) while New York Liberty was at 6% — a cleaner profile for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Minnesota's attempts came from the paint vs 24% of New York's; New York tilted here more (24% vs 20%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Minnesota's attempts came from the paint vs 24% of New York's; New York tilted here more (24% vs 20%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 3.4 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 9 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightStewart's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (7/7) vs. a 57% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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