This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 37 points on 13-for-24 (54%), headlined by 7-for-11 from above the break — 12.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Indiana Fever created 10.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 20.8 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +5.8 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Chicago Sky (52% good looks) and Indiana Fever (48% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 22% of Chicago's; Indiana tilted here more (33% vs 22%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 22% of Chicago's; Indiana tilted here more (33% vs 22%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 42.0 pts
Indiana Fever won the turnover battle by 5 (14 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarrington's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (2/2) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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