TSRBeta
Thursday, September 17, 2026 · Final

This game · 153 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

77—97
Los Angeles Sparks
LA
Sparks
DAL
Wings
Dallas Wings

Dallas Wings won on finishing, not shot quality.

Paige Bueckers

led the way with 19 points on 8-for-13 (62%), headlined by 5-for-5 in the paint — 4.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Alysha Clark close behind (+3.9 on 9 points, 3-for-3 on tough looks).

  1. Los Angeles Sparks created 1.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 11.6 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Los Angeles Sparks built a +5.9 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+1.8↓ Below avg
-1.8↓ Below avg
Shot making
-11.2↑ Above avg
+11.6↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.98
0.99

Shot diet

Dallas Wings (28% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (33% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Jessica Shepard

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

Rim
LA
23%9/18 · 50% FG
DAL
20%12/15 · 80% FG
2/3 2/2
PaintKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the paint vs 19% of Dallas's; Los Angeles tilted here more (31% vs 19%).

LA
31%9/24 · 38% FG
DAL
19%9/14 · 64% FG
4/6 5/5
Corner 3
LA
10%1/8 · 13% FG
DAL
8%0/6 · 0% FG
0/2 0/3
Short mid
LA
10%2/8 · 25% FG
DAL
8%2/6 · 33% FG
2/3 1/3
Long mid
LA
4%2/3 · 67% FG
DAL
13%5/10 · 50% FG
0/1 1/3
Above break
LA
22%6/17 · 35% FG
DAL
32%10/24 · 42% FG
2/3 2/3

Possession context

LADAL
Transition share38%37%
Second-chance share12%12%
After-steal share8%4%
Half-court expected pts/att0.950.97
Transition expected pts/att0.991.03

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Dallas Wings won by 8.1 pts — SQ edge said LA.

Los Angeles Sparks got the better looks, but Dallas Wings won the full process battle by 8.1 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

LADALEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots76.274.4LA
Finishing vs expected-11.2+11.6DAL

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1211LA
Turnovers1420LA
Offensive rebounds710DAL

Process value (pts)

Process total77.385.5DAL
↳ Looks + finishing65.086.0-21.0
↳ Free throws12.011.0+1.0
↳ Turnover cost-7.0-22.0+15.0
↳ Second chance7.310.5-3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/13
FG%
62%
Pts
19
Vs expected
+4.5
C&S
1/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightBueckers's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (5/5) vs. a 40% expectation.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1