This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 18 points on 7-for-9 (78%), headlined by 7-for-9 at the rim — 3.6 more than expected overall with 100% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Atlanta Dream created 19.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 0.2 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +9.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 42% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 32%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 32%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 16.2 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 5 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHoward's strongest zone was Above — 44% from Above (4/9) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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