TSRBeta
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Final

This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

81—95
Toronto Tempo
TOR
Tempo
CONN
Sun
Connecticut Sun

Connecticut Sun won on finishing, not shot quality.

Ashlon Jackson

led the way with 18 points on 6-for-11 (55%), headlined by 5-for-7 from above the break — 5.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Toronto Tempo created 3.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Connecticut Sun outperformed expected value by 7.5 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Toronto Tempo built a +4.0 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+3.6↓ Below avg
-3.6↓ Below avg
Shot making
-22.1↑ Above avg
+7.5
Expected pts per shot
1.04
0.99

Shot diet

Connecticut Sun (34% good looks) and Toronto Tempo (42% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Kiki Rice

carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 31% of Connecticut's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (35% vs 31%).

TOR
35%17/26 · 65% FG
CONN
31%17/23 · 74% FG
6/7 6/7
Paint
TOR
12%1/9 · 11% FG
CONN
18%6/13 · 46% FG
1/3 2/4
Corner 3
TOR
7%0/5 · 0% FG
CONN
3%0/2 · 0% FG
0/2 0/2
Short mid
TOR
8%1/6 · 17% FG
CONN
11%5/8 · 63% FG
1/2 3/4
Long mid
TOR
4%1/3 · 33% FG
CONN
11%2/8 · 25% FG
1/3 2/2
Above break
TOR
34%5/25 · 20% FG
CONN
27%7/20 · 35% FG
2/6 5/7

Possession context

TORCONN
Transition share28%27%
Second-chance share16%15%
After-steal share7%4%
Half-court expected pts/att1.050.95
Transition expected pts/att1.051.04

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Connecticut Sun won by 17.8 pts — SQ edge said TOR.

Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but Connecticut Sun won the full process battle by 17.8 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

TORCONNEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots77.173.5TOR
Finishing vs expected-22.1+7.5CONN

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2614TOR
Turnovers1312CONN
Offensive rebounds1410TOR

Process value (pts)

Process total76.694.5CONN
↳ Looks + finishing55.081.0-26.0
↳ Free throws26.014.0+12.0
↳ Turnover cost-19.0-11.0-8.0
↳ Second chance14.610.5+4.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
4/12
FG%
33%
Pts
8
Vs expected
-4.1
C&S
0/2
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightAngloma struggled most from Above — 0/2 against a 39% baseline.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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