This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 17 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 2-for-2 in the paint — 4.7 more than expected overall.
- Atlanta Dream created 8.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 3.1 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +5.2 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 30% rim or corner looks vs 16% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 10% of Las Vegas's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (24% vs 10%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 10% of Las Vegas's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (24% vs 10%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 24.9 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 6 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson's strongest zone was L.Mid — 67% from L.Mid (2/3) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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