This game · 122 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 16 points on 6-for-8 (75%), including 1-for-1 from three — 5.4 more than expected on a night most looks were tough (25% from the rim or corner).
- Phoenix Mercury created 0.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 1.0 points on makes and misses.
- Monique Akoa Makani carried the finishing gap — +5.4 vs expected on 13 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty (22% good looks) and Phoenix Mercury (26% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of New York's; New York tilted here more (35% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of New York's; New York tilted here more (35% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 2.8 pts
Phoenix Mercury won the turnover battle by 10 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightStewart lived in the midrange — 46% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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