This game · 145 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 26 points on 9-for-19 (47%), headlined by 4-for-6 in the paint — 5.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Las Vegas Aces created 10.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 6.7 points on finishing.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +4.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty (23% good looks) and Las Vegas Aces (15% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 11% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 15% of New York's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (15% vs 11%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 11% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 15% of New York's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (15% vs 11%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 3.0 pts
Las Vegas Aces got the better looks, but New York Liberty carried the process scorecard.
New York Liberty won the free-throw line by 13 pts and the turnover battle by 4. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightIonescu's strongest zone was Paint — 67% from Paint (4/6) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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