This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 24 points on 8-for-8 (100%), headlined by 3-for-3 from above the break — 11.0 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Atlanta Dream created 18.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 10.8 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +8.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo (54% good looks) and Atlanta Dream (52% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 29% of Toronto's; Atlanta tilted here more (32% vs 29%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 29% of Toronto's; Atlanta tilted here more (32% vs 29%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 33.3 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 10 (20 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (3/6) vs. a 30% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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