This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 19 points on 7-for-9 (78%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 9.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Washington Mystics created 11.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Washington Mystics outperformed expected value by 5.5 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Washington Mystics built a +7.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 50% rim or corner looks vs 26% for Phoenix Mercury.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 17% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 33% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (33% vs 17%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 17% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 33% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (33% vs 17%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 29.2 pts
Washington Mystics won the turnover battle by 8 (16 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightAustin's strongest zone was Rim — 71% from Rim (5/7) vs. a 59% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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