This game · 139 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Phoenix Mercury won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 14 points on 5-for-8 (63%), headlined by 4-for-6 from above the break — 6.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Phoenix Mercury created 14.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 10.5 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Phoenix Mercury built a +6.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo attacked the rim more — 37% of attempts in the restricted area vs 27% for Phoenix Mercury.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 27% of Phoenix's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 27%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 27% of Phoenix's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 27%).
Possession context
PHX ran more early offense in this game.
Phoenix Mercury got 36% of FGA in transition (1.02 expected pts/att) vs 24% for Toronto Tempo (1.13 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 53.1 pts
Phoenix Mercury won the turnover battle by 7 (16 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCiezki's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (2/2) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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