This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 43 points on 16-for-21 (76%), headlined by 8-for-12 from above the break — 20.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Minnesota Lynx created 6.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 23.0 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Minnesota Lynx created a +5.2 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings lived in the midrange (29%) while Minnesota Lynx was at 15% — a cleaner profile for Minnesota Lynx.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 7/8 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Dallas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 50% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (50% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Dallas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 50% of Minnesota's; Minnesota tilted here more (50% vs 25%).
Possession context
MIN ran more early offense in this game.
Minnesota Lynx got 38% of FGA in transition (1.02 expected pts/att) vs 24% for Dallas Wings (1.01 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 26.9 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 8 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMcBride created in difficult areas and delivered — 67% from Above (8/12) well above the 35% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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