This game · 130 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
made every look count with 10 points on 4-for-4 (100%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 6.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Dallas Wings created 10.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 16.2 points on finishing.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +5.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces (15% good looks) and Dallas Wings (20% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/5 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 13% of Dallas's attempts came from short midrange vs 18% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas settled here more often (18% vs 13%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 13% of Dallas's attempts came from short midrange vs 18% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas settled here more often (18% vs 13%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 25.2 pts — SQ edge said DAL.
Dallas Wings got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 25.2 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from Rim (4/4) well above the 60% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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