This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 23 points on 7-for-11 (64%), including 1-for-1 from three — 2.4 more than expected with 100% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Allisha Gray close behind (+2.0 on 20 points).
- Atlanta Dream created 9.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 9.9 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +5.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks lived in the midrange (17%) while Atlanta Dream was at 3% — a cleaner profile for Atlanta Dream.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 49% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (49% vs 43%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 49% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (49% vs 43%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 21.3 pts
Atlanta Dream won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightGray was sharp — 53% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 50% from Above (3/6) against a 39% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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