TSRBeta
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Final

This game · 126 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

84—105
Portland Fire
POR
Fire
LA
Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks

Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.

Rae Burrell

led the way with 20 points on 5-for-8 (63%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 4.1 more than expected overall, with Erica Wheeler close behind (+4.4 on 9 points, 3-for-4 on tough looks).

  1. Portland Fire created 3.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 14.4 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Portland Fire built a +5.1 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+3.7↓ Below avg
-3.7↓ Below avg
Shot making
-7.3
+14.4↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.08
1.06

Shot diet

Portland Fire got the cleaner diet — 52% rim or corner looks vs 37% for Los Angeles Sparks.

Megan Gustafson

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 24% of Los Angeles's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 24%).

POR
38%14/24 · 58% FG
LA
24%11/15 · 73% FG
4/5 3/3
Paint
POR
13%5/8 · 63% FG
LA
11%3/7 · 43% FG
1/2 0/2
Corner 3
POR
14%2/9 · 22% FG
LA
13%3/8 · 38% FG
1/2 2/3
Short mid
POR
5%3/3 · 100% FG
LA
8%1/5 · 20% FG
1/1 1/5
Long mid
POR
3%0/2 · 0% FG
LA
10%4/6 · 67% FG
0/2 2/3
Above break
POR
28%4/18 · 22% FG
LA
34%11/21 · 52% FG
1/2 2/2

Possession context

PORLA
Transition share25%23%
Second-chance share14%16%
After-steal share5%3%
Half-court expected pts/att1.061.02
Transition expected pts/att1.141.12

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Los Angeles Sparks won by 20.0 pts — SQ edge said POR.

Portland Fire got the better looks, but Los Angeles Sparks won the full process battle by 20.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

PORLAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots69.365.6POR
Finishing vs expected-7.3+14.4LA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2225LA
Turnovers1716LA
Offensive rebounds89LA

Process value (pts)

Process total76.496.4LA
↳ Looks + finishing62.080.0-18.0
↳ Free throws22.025.0-3.0
↳ Turnover cost-16.0-18.0+2.0
↳ Second chance8.49.4-1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
9/19
FG%
47%
Pts
20
Vs expected
+0.2
C&S
1/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightOgwumike lived in the midrange — 42% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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